Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Just by eye


Continuing our look at Fixed Private Investment and Total Debt. The growth of fixed private investment peaks before the growth of total debt:

Graph #1: Fixed Private Investment (blue) and Total Credit Market Debt (red) on Log Scales
The values are shown on a log scale to make growth rates visually evident.

Investment (the blue line) appears to curve gradually upward until 1980, then trends upward at a slower pace, on a straight rather than upcurving path.

Debt (the red line) appears to curve gradually upward until around 1986, then trends upward at a slower pace on a path that displays little if any upward curve.

The upward curve of the blue line appears to run from 1960 to 1980; that of the red line from 1970 to near 1990. Either (or both) of these upcurves might be related to "the Great Inflation" -- and they probably are. But it is difficult "by eye" to imagine why inflation would appear first in the investment numbers, and later in the debt numbers.

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