Tuesday, January 5, 2010

To tie up a loose end

From last time:

Debt has been growing exponentially since the end of World War II. The growth of debt is not under control. But since the end of World War II, it has been regular and predictable. It depends on mathematical forces or, let's say, on the mathematical consequences of economic forces. It does not depend on who wins the election.

I hold that economic forces are directed by economic policy. You might point out that economic policy is created by politicians. That puts politicians at the head of the line of causation. So then (says you), the growth of debt does depend on who wins the election.

Very nice. But "who wins the election" is subject to change. Sometimes one party wins, and sometimes the other. Those different outcomes do not show up on the Debt-per-Dollar graph. The graph does not wiggle one way when Democrats win and wiggle the other way when Republicans win. In fact, it hardly wiggles at all. The graph doesn't show political trends. It shows exponential increase. It shows the mathematical consequences of economic forces.

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